Important information - the value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest.

It’s the classic ‘trilemma’, particularly for those in their 40s and 50s: should you overpay your mortgage, invest in an ISA or pay more into your pension?

With interest rates higher than they have been for much of the past 10 years, it may be tempting to take the guaranteed return of overpaying your mortgage over the unpredictability of stock markets.

However, our number crunching suggests that doing so could potentially leave you £33,000 worse off after 20 years.

Mortgage, ISA or pension?

Let’s take an example. Emma is 45 earning £40,000 a year with £300 a month in excess savings.

She has £150,000 in her pension already and £100,000 left to repay on her mortgage over the next 15 years. Her mortgage rate is 4%.

Emma considers three options for her excess savings:

  1. Put it towards overpaying her mortgage (once the mortgage is paid off, she puts the £300 a month into her pension)
  2. Put it into a stocks and shares ISA 
  3. Put it into her pension

We assume in all scenarios that she is putting 5% of her pay into her pension and her employer puts in 3% - with any additional contributions being on top of that. We also assume her salary goes up by 2% per year until she retires at age 65.

We modelled what might happen in the 20 years until Emma’s retirement in each scenario.

Option 1: overpay the mortgage

If Emma takes option 1, she clears her mortgage 5 years earlier than expected (by age 55). The £300 a month net contribution she makes to her pension after that would help to grow her pension pot to £427,577 by the end of the 20 years.

She also has £80,294 in cash, thanks to the debt interest saved from repaying her mortgage early and to the increases she has enjoyed to her salary.

Her total financial wealth is now £507,871, assuming no other savings or investments and not including her property.

Option 2: invest in an ISA

If Emma invests her £300 per month into an ISA, she still clears her mortgage in 15 years (by age 60) as per her repayment plan. By the time she retires, she would also have investments in her stocks and shares ISA worth £85,469 and a pension worth £376,218.

On top of that, she has cash savings of £53,476 thanks to her salary increases.

Her combined financial wealth is now £515,163.

Option 3: pay into a pension

If Emma takes option 3 and puts the £300 a month into her pension, she would leave work with a retirement pot of £498,866.

As with the other two scenarios, she would have cleared her mortgage by the end of her repayment plan - but with option 3 she ends up with significantly more in her pension.

That is partly down to the fact that, in option 3, Emma invests in her pension earlier - giving the investments more time to grow. It’s also thanks to the generous income tax relief Emma gets on her pension, which means the government tops up her £300 a month contribution by 20%.

She ends up with cash savings of £42,063 thanks to her salary growth.

Her total financial wealth at the end of the 20 years is £540,929 - approximately £26,000 more than in option 2 and £33,000 more than in option 1.

In all cases, we have assumed that Emma achieves a return on her investments of 5.7% a year (based on typical, long-term stock market returns, after fees). We have not accounted for any growth in the value of Emma’s property.

The dangers of cash

There is a fourth option. Emma could do nothing with her £300 a month excess cash and simply let it accumulate. This is the worst option of all.

She would end up with a cash pile of £106,378 and a pension worth £376,218. That means her total financial wealth is £482,596 - £58,000 or so less than if she’d have invested the £300 per month into her pension.

If she fails to get a good return on her cash, its value would likely be eroded by inflation over those 20 years.

Other factors to consider

Additional factors could well influence Emma’s decision-making. For example, if her mortgage rate fell from 4% to 2%, this would reduce the benefits of repaying the debt early and make investing (either into a pension or ISA) more attractive.

If Emma’s employer offered generous matching benefits on pension contributions (e.g. when she ups her contribution by £300, her employer ups their contribution by £300), this would also tip the balance towards option 3.

Here we are assuming that Emma does not need these savings for any short-term needs and is happy to lock the money away for retirement. However, if that’s not the case and Emma wishes to access that money before retirement, it would likely be better to save into an ISA.

Please remember this is not financial advice. The decision on whether to overpay your mortgage or invest in an ISA or pension will be completely individual and based on your personal circumstances. If you’re unsure of what to do, it could be worth speaking to a qualified financial adviser.

Got a burning question you want to ask? Why not drop us a line. Click here to ask your question.

Important information - investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon. Withdrawals from a pension product will not be possible until you reach age 55 (57 from 2028). Eligibility to invest in an ISA and tax treatment depends on personal circumstances and all tax rules may change in the future. This information is not a personal recommendation for any particular investment. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment you should speak to one of Fidelity’s advisers or an authorised financial adviser of your choice.

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